NFL: First Look

The early team-by-team evaluation of the 2006 season.

After the Sixth week of action, every team has played a minimum of five games and so it is possible to come up with an assessment and rank the teams according to their chances, at this point, of reaching SuperBowl XLI. The teams can be ranked in three to five groups:

The Double-Digit Losers:

These are the teams that have no business beating anybody outside of their group, and no team that considers itself a contender should even have a close game against them. The group of shame in no particular order: Oakland (A legitimate look at a winless season), Miami (Joey Harrington is their starting QB), Cleveland (The close loss against Baltimore could have changed their season), Tennessee (Travis Henry is a great back that never gets his dues), Houston (The are still building, actually they are rebuilding (whatever)), San Francisco (A franchise with no signs of life whatsoever (unless you like fantasy football)), Arizona (Just wait, next is year is the year (right)), Green Bay (the main attraction for the next two years is Brett Favre breaking some records (great)), Detroit (maintaining the streak of 2000 consecutive losing seasons), Tampa Bay (Bruce Gardkowski actually gives them a better chance (Wow)), Washington (The same dysfunctional franchise), and Buffalo (played a couple of close games, but you give the Lions their first win and you belong with them).

Of course since we are all professionals here, and since the NFL is the game of parity and “Any Given Sunday” (not the movie) some of these teams will show some signs of life every now and then (especially in the first quarter), but so far the overall picture indicates that for any of the above teams a 5-win 2006 season is a successful campaign.

The Contenders:

Teams that will reach double digit in the win column and that has showed so far that they have what it takes to be playing in January. As of the end of Week 6 the most impressive teams, in descending order:

-Chicago:
Wins: GB, DET, MIN, SEA, BUF, ARI.
Losses: None.
The lineup of victims is not impressive at all, but the fact that they blew out some teams and fought to win some games when they did not play their best give them the top spot. The blowout against (a Shaun Alexander-less) Seattle was a battle of the NFC undefeated on national TV and that is why it appeared to make a big statement. However the win against Minnesota is the one that gave them the confidence that they can win even when they do not play their best, as proven by the crazy game against Arizona (which of course they were lucky to win).
Rex Grossman grabbed national attention for the way he played and managed to come back with a big play against Minnesota on a day when he almost cost them the game, but the six turnovers against the Cardinals was a reality check for him. The speedsters Brain Berrian and Rashied Davis are giving him nice options down field but sometimes the offensive line has some lapses, especially picking up blitzes. They continue to incorporate TE Desmond Clark in the passing game which is another positive development. The running game is not very impressive and Cedric Benson carries are still minimal. DT Tommie Harris is an early candidate of the year for defensive player of the year, and Brian Urlacher is still the leader of the group, highlighted by his 17 tackles and the way he took over the game against the Cardinals. The secondary is still questionable especially with the severe Mike Brown injury and the pending Ricky Manning Jr. suspension.

-Indianapolis:
Wins: NYG, HOU, JAX, NYJ, TEN.
Losses: None.
Although undefeated, they are accused of being not as “flashy” or impressive as the recent Colts teams which blew by the field. However they are taking care of business, and some local reporters think they are just board with regular season play and just cruising towards the playoffs. After the first two easy wins they were dominated by the Jaguars running game (Jags held the ball for 40 minutes), came back against the Jets and scored the winning TD in the last minute and survived the 15 laterals on the Jets last play, and came back against the lowly Titans scoring 2 TDs in the second half. Yet those were all Ws.
The offense is not as explosive. Maybe they are missing a third slot receiver (Brandon Stokley is still not healthy), or that the “platooning” running backs approach are not as effective as Edgerrine James.
However, their biggest problem is the run defense. The run stuffing DT is the hottest commodity in the league right now and they do not have one. Cory Simon is ill and they are searching the waiver wire for a washed up veteran (See Sam Adams and Grady Jackson who are already taken), and they even considered the Raiders Warren Sapp (!). The undersized defense is worn out early this year, Dwight Freeney is none-existent, the safeties are always hurt, and this is looking like another early playoffs exit for the Colts.

-Denver:
Wins: KC, NE, BAL, OAK.
Losses: STL.
After a disappointing start and aloss in a FG shootout against the Rams, they put up four straight strong wins. The final scores may not look like they are blowing out people but they practically are. Against the Patriots they shut them out until garbage time. Against Baltimore they won a tough game and their defense outshined the highly touted Ravens defense.
They are not scoring much but Jake Plummer is just doing enough. Tatum Bell is emerging as their featured back, and Jevon Walker was a huge addition.
Their defense has allowed one TD all year (with 9:00 minutes remaining Doug Gabriel caught a Tom Brady pass, and by the way the game was going, it sure felt like a garbage time score). The LB trio along with the emergence of Darrent Williams as a good cover corner next to Champ Bailey (who is having an excellent year) leads one of the best groups in the league

-New England:
Wins: BUF,NYJ, CIN, MIA
Losses:DEN..
The Pats did not impress many when they opened with a close win (on a J.P. Losman safety) against the Bills, allowed the Jets to attempt a comeback on them and then got embarrassed on national TV against the Broncos. There were many questions about their passing game without any above-average receivers, and about Tom Brady being unhappy with the situation. Next came the destruction of the Bengals followed by an easy win against the Dolphins, both were important to prove that they are still a top notch team.
The passing game is still not on track even after the addition of WR Doug Gabriel (and Jabar Gaffney). Brady is heavily depending on his TEs. The running game however is what is carrying them (except against the Broncos when it was completely shut down).
The defense is solid but has more than the usual holes. DT Vince Wolfork does not have a backup, and the backups in the secondary are street free agents, but somehow they still can get the job done as they proved against the Bengals offense.

-San Diego:
Wins: OAK, TEN, PIT, SF
Losses: BAL
Again, wins against the losers group does not carry that much weight. But they could have won that game against Baltimore. They played scared and they tried to protect rookie Philip Rivers (who looks very impressive so far). Everybody blamed “Marty Ball” for the loss, but he was justified trying to protect the rookie QB against a strong Ravens pass rush on day that the OL was not playing great and was killing Chargers drives with penalties (Kris Deilman). They came back and held the Steelers to 49 total yards in the second half of their next game earning their first “real” win.
The rookie QB and the no-name receivers group are doing enough to keep the offense moving, behind LaDanian Tomlinson and Michael Turner (1 touch o yards against SF !!).
The defense is living up to its reputation to the high expectations and NT Jamaal Williams is even exceeding them.

-New Orleans:
Wins: CLE, GB, ATL, TB, PHI
Losses: CAR
At this point they deserve some credit and an apology as well. The benefited from opening against two could/should-beat teams, then they fed off the festive atmosphere of the Monday night game and beat a one-dimensional Atlanta team. A close loss to Carolina (Deshaun Foster break free on a clock killing run to score, NO came back with an 86-yard TD and a 2-pont conversion but it was not enough) raised some doubts but the two wins to follow earned them a spot up here. All their games wee close, well-fought battles and head- coach Sean Payton deserves all the credit for assembling and handpicking this group when he took over.
Drew Breese proves again that the most important player on the football team is the QB. WR Marques Colston a seventh round rookie (252 pick overall) is becoming a household name and the combination of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush is even better than advertised.
The defensive unit turns out to be a solid group of veterans and youngsters (and they could be the reason the Saints continue playing every opponent close). The front seven is an excellent group as they proved against the Eagles. DT Hollis Thomas had a tremendous game against the Eagles and the ends Charles Grant and Will Smith are playing at a high level. LB Scott Fujita whom Payton brought along from the Cowboys is very active all over the field, and even the veterans in the secondary are doing a good job. For the time being this team belongs with the big boys.

The Middle of the pack:
-Closer to the top:
These are teams that could easily belong to the top group, if not for that one or two losses that will make it impossible for them to make the cut. It is one thing to lose to a top-tier team in a closely fought battle, but some games you cannot lose if you want to be in the top teams conversation.

-Carolina:
Wins: TB, NO, CLE, BAL.
Losses: ATL, MIN.
This team easily belongs to the top group, expect that they opened with back to back losses to the Hawks and Vikings. The Hawks surprised them with the running attack (252 yards on the ground), and against the Vikings they threw the game away with the stupid trick play on the punt return and lost in overtime (and they still could not stop the Vikings running game). Now that they have won 4 straight, and Steve Smith’s hamstring is much better, they could be challenging the Saints for the top of the division (one may argue that they are already more deserving since they beat them head to head).
The loss of their LT Travelle Wharton shook their offense early in the year but they seem to have adjusted by moving Jordan Gross there, and plugging a free agent Guard Jeremy Bridges at the right spot. The game against Baltimore was their best offensive display of the year, but their running game still ranks in the middle of the pack. The injury to D’Angelo Williams and the early problems with the line could have contributed to that.
The defense also is starting to play better lately after getting hurt by the loss of MLB Dan Morgan and the regressing play of CB Ken Lucas. Julius Peppers is having a monstrous start.

-Jacksonville
Wins: DAL, PIT, NYJ.
Losses: IND, WAS.
An excellent team. Their win against Dallas and the Pittsburgh shutout on Monday night were very impressive, but the loss against Washington dropped them here, especially that their defense allowed 36 points to a struggling Redskins offense. If they could have finished the job against the Colts it could be a different story.
A healthy Fred Taylor, complimented by rookie Maurice Jones-Drew, behind a healthy solid line, three tall (6-4 +) wide receivers, and all what is missing is for Bryan Leftwich to take his game to the next level.
The defense could be mightily hurt by the loss of MLB Mike Peterson, since they are very thin at the linebacker position. A factor in their success on defense is the level of play of Rashean Mathis who is living up to his preseason hype.

-Seattle:
Wins: DET, ARI, NYG, STL
Losses: CHI
None of their wins was more important than that against the Rams to secure their elite status, at least in their own division, even if it came on three long field goals (A 54 yarder by Josh Brown to end it). The embarrassing loss against the Bears the opener and the struggle against the Lions (9-6) in the opener is what left them here in the rankings. They maybe suffering from a SuperBowl hangover, but there is no reason not to believe that they are still a good team.
This offense is slightly different from last year in the fact that Sahun Alexander is hurt and Matt Hasselback is not playing as the best QB in the NFC. The line struggled a little not because of the departure of G Steve Hutchinson, but because Floyd Womack was hurt and Walter Jones is not 100% healthy. Darrell Jackson is their best receiver this year (maybe until Deion Branch gets familiar with the team), and with the absence of Alexander they are running a 4-wide receiver set that proved effective against the Giants and Rams.
On defense, they retained every starter and added Julian Peterson (28 tackles and 4 sacks), so they have no reason not to play at a high level.

-Baltimore:
Wins: TB, OAK, CLE, SD
Losses: DEN, CAR
They opened with two vanilla teams. They followed with a close one against Cleveland (a come from behind and a 52-yarder by Matt Stover), and another comeback against the Chargers. After their two back to back losses (the first proved that their offense is impotent and the second proved that their defense is overrated), they are back to earth.
With the (expected) injury to Steve McNair (and even before he got hurt) it was obvious that they have not solved the chronic offensive problems. It is even worse this year, since they cannot run the ball (Jamaal Lewis is washed up, and they refuse to give Mike Anderson and Musa Smith bigger roles), and even their All-Pro TE Todd Heap is not playing at his pre-injuries level.
The defense is still loaded with names, but they struggled to stop the run against Denver when neither team was getting anything in the passing game on a rainy night. Ray Lewis is unhappy that the team let DT Maake Kemoteau who kept blockers off him depart, and the big name secondary got torched by Jake Delhomme and the Panthers. Their next game against New Orleans is a big test, now that Kyle Boller is back under center.

-Philadelphia:
Wins: HOU, SF, GB, DAL
Losses: NYG, NO
Their only impressive win came against the Cowboys,. They belong here because they are a good team with a legitimate QB (very few teams can claim that) and excellent depth. They had no business losing to the Giants in a game that they completely dominated. The ball bounced in the Giants favor a couple of times and the Eagles celebrated the win early and could not finish. The loss to New Orleans came in a very close game against a very good team, but it definitely exposed some of the Eagles problems.
Although their offense is ranked first in the league behind Donovan McNabb who is having an MVP-type year, they are still ignoring the concept of running the ball. Brian Westbrook has been draining fluids from his knee all year and cannot survive a whole game let alone the whole season.
On defense they were rotating 6-7 linemen at the 4 front spots, until they lost Jevon Kearse for the year. Their best lineman is Trent Cole who makes plays all over the field in addition to his pass rush. The defense allowed the Saints to hold the ball for the 8 last minutes without being able t slow them down to get the ball, they are not getting much help from the linebackers, and in the secondary Lito Sheppard is their MVP.

-Middle of the Middle:
Teams that can sneak into the playoffs and maybe peak at the right time to make a run at it. But they are also capable of self-destructing and finishing with 6-7 wins.

-Dallas:
Wins: TEN, WAS, HOU
Losses: JAX, PHI
They dominated every team they had to beat and lost the statement games. Against Jacksonville they started hot and then gave up 24 straight while Drew Bledsoe disintegrated. Against Eagles, they gave up too many big plays as a result of poor play by the safeties. They still had a chance late in the game, but Bledsoe finished another miserable day with a pick.
Their biggest question on offense remains pass protection. The Eagles sacked Bledsoe seven times, confusing the OL with the various blitzing looks, and the pressure in Bledsoe’s face is just fatal for this team. Julius Jones is among the top five players in the league in rushing yards/game.
The defense continues to mature despite being a disappointment against the Jaguars. FS Pat Watkins struggled a little bit and Roy Williams is playing the pass better. Greg Ellis made the successful transition to LB and the team is ranked first in the NFL against the run. On a separate note their number one pick in last year draft LB Bobby Carpenter was inactive for 3 of the last 5 games!

-Minnesota:
Wins: WAS, CAR, DET
Losses: CHI, BUF
This is a team that significantly exceeded expectations. All the games they played were very close. The win against Carolina came after they recovered the Panthers lateral return, scored on a fake field goal and then won in overtime. They surprisingly came back against the Lions forcing two turnovers in the fourth after trailing for the whole game. Even the loss to Chicago came on a last minute drive, after they fought hard all game, and played excellent defense.
Brad Johnson is managing the game and limiting his mistakes but his receivers are just terrible. Troy Williamson is “a catch one drop one” guy and they were looking to add somebody from the waivers. Chester Taylor was a worthy addition and they are able to run the ball behind a steady line.
Their front seven is also playing excellent despite losing DE Erasmus James for the year. Kevin and Pat Williams have this team ranked fourth against the run and all their star linebackers are playing hard. The secondary however is not living up to its hype where Fred Smoot and Antoine Winfield are constantly getting burnt. (They could have kept CB Brian Williams who is doing a good job with the Jaguars).

-Cincinnati
Wins: KC, CLE, PIT
Losses: NE, TB
After the win against the Steelers, the Bengals carried themselves like a contender, which cannot be farther from the truth. It was a big achievement for this team to go into the SuperBowl champions home and get a win (which was handed to them by the three back-to-back turnovers and a couple of critical Big Ben picks), but the reality check followed against the Patriots and the lowly Buccaneers (they may have lost to TB on a couple of bad calls, but it should not have been that close in the first place.)
Carson Palmer looks like he overcame the knee injury, the pass rush is getting to him much more this year, and with injury to LT Levi Jones protection may get worse. His multiple options at wide receiver are getting thinner with the suspension of Chris Henry, the injury to Kelly Washington and the (relative) ineffectiveness of Chad Johnson. T.J. Houshmandzadah is his most dependable receiver.
Their run defense is at the bottom of league and the addition of the big bodies of Sam Adams and rookie Demato Peko does not seem to make up for the absence of their lead tackler from last year Odell Thurman. Their pass defense is slightly better with the addition of rookie Jonathan Joseph to a deep group that thrives on getting interceptions.

-Pittsburgh:
Wins: MIA, KC
Losses: JAX, CIN, SD
It may be unfair ranking them here since their three losses came against three solid teams. But the overall play and the quality of their two wins is what got them ranked this low. They got shutout by the Jaguars and in the second half against San Diego, and they gave away a must-win game to the Bengals (at one stretch they had an interception, a muffed punt, and a fumble within 5 minutes, and every time they could have sealed the win, they will let the Bengals back). And they have too many problems right now.
Ben Roethlisberger played miserably this year. They were not able to replace Randle El as a receiver and more importantly as a kick returner. The offensive line has the same players but they lost their edge (until they dominated Chiefs).
Even their defense seems affected by the SuperBowl hangover. Joey Porter is just a loud mouth who has a total of 5 tackles for the year. Troy Polamalu was missing too many tackles early, and the secondary looks like they miss Chris Hope (who is doing a good job with the Titans).

-Closer to the Bottom:
These teams are closer to irrelevancy than to a Championship. At the end of the year 8-8 is an accomplishment.

-New York Giants:
Wins: PHI, WAS, ATL
Losses: IND, SEA
Just looks like a dysfunctional team. Players calling out the coach after losses, and underachievers all over the field, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and LaVar Arrington and his 12 tackles. Despite the fact that they opened with a tough schedule and they are sitting at a 3-2 record, and despite the win against the Eagles (that they lucked into) and a win over the overrated Falcons, the blow out against Seattle may have showed that this team may just not be that good.
Tiki Barber picked up where he left last year and he is their MVP. Eli Manning still has a long way to go. Their rebuilt secondary is average at best and even the highly advertised front four and the pass-rush has not played to it potential.

-St. Louis:
Wins: DEN, ARI, DET, GB
Losses: SF, SEA
How can a team that has a win against a big team (DEN), plays another one that close (SEA) and still ranks here? The loss to the 49ers and the other 3 wins.
They have a good QB in Marc Bulger, hard-running Stephen Jackson and Torry Holt has not slowed down yet. The offensive line is not bad at all and this team can score points.
Even the defensive front four is playing well, but beyond that their defense has few playmakers. The combination of the rookie head-coach and the fact that their schedule gets much tougher (on the bright side they get SF and ARI once more) could mean that their record is a fluke. In addition Leonard Little (who killed Susan Gutweiler when he was driving drunk and was arrested again for DUI a few years later) is playing good football.

-Atlanta:
Wins: CAR, TB, ARI
Losses: NO, NYG.
They surprised their early opponents (especially Carolina) with the triple running threat of Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn (who is still a great underrated running back; just watch the block had to get Vick to the end zone against the Giants) and rookie Jerious Norwood. Until teams realized that this team still cannot throw the ball.
Michael Vick is still his old self (no, he has not learned the time-passing offense yet) and he still dances around too much (7 sacks and 4 fumbles against the Giants). He is still blaming receivers who are still dropping his passes and the whole thing is just not going anywhere.
Their defense is still average in stopping the run despite the addition of washed up Grady Jackson and of course John Abraham played a good opener and sat out until last week. DeAngelo Hall needs to stop with his Deion Sanders impressions in the end zone and realizes that he plays on an average team at best.

-New York Jets:
Wins: TEN, BUF, MIA
Loss: NE, JAX, IND
They opened with 4 hard fought close games. Surviving a last minute drive inside their 8 against the Titans, falling short of a comeback against the Patriots, getting a win against Buffalo despite allowing a 150 rushing to Willis McGahee and two 100+ receivers, and suffering a late choke against the Colts. Then, came the embarrassing 41-0 loss to the Jaguars, recovering with beating the Dolphins in another close one.
Chad Pennington is easily the comeback player of the year so far (despite that miserable Jags game: 71 yards and 3 picks) and his receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are putting up good numbers.
As expected, Jonathan Vilma expressed his discontent with the 3-4 so they are showing more 4-3 fronts now, especially that their linemen are much better than their linebackers. FS Kerry Rhodes is playing very well and making a bunch of tackles to add to his 3 sacks.

-Kansas City:
Wins: SF, ARI
Losses: CIN, DEN, PIT
They get credit for continuing to play hard despite losing Trent Green and having Damon Huard as their starting QB. The second game against Denver is a perfect example why Herman Edwards continues to be a terrible coach. That was a game that they could have won and could have meant a different start for their year and they just let it go to overtime and accepted defeat. The blow out against Pittsburgh makes them appear on the verge of joining the hopeless group.
In the year when the defense finally starts playing a little better, the offense disappear behind the patch work offensive line and the no-name receivers. TE Tony Gonzalez looks washed up and even the strength and versatility of Larry Johnson cannot get this offense going.

Always keep in mind that these are not predictions of how these teams will finish.This is the outlook of the teams based on their early play in the year. There is always the chance of a lousy team winning three straight against other lousy teams and all of a sudden it is the media darling and the “true” contender.
Five weeks from now some dramatic changes are bound to happen on these rankings and that is why they play the game.

NFL: Season Preview ‘06