NFL: A Quarter to Go

A quick look at the top teams in the league between weeks 7-13.

For the first time since the beginning of the salary cap era, there are some wider-spread complaints against “Parity”. Unfortunately this year, (which is just like every other NFL season: happens to be a “weird” season), the word parity is a synonym for mediocrity. After 8 games 15 out of the 32 teams were either at 0.500, one game above or one game below. By week 13 there are 16 teams who are 6-6, 7-5 and 5-7. Gamblers (an integral part of football) are going crazy: Nothing is making sense. Veteran gamblers have been sitting out the rest of the season since week 7 and waiting for the playoffs. A sports writer (who is a much better comedian than he is a handicapper) is more than 6 games behind his wife in picking games, and his wife is picking the games randomly. There could be many reasons for this phenomenon: (Bad Quarterbacks (Can you find a third pro-bowl QB in the NFC (Alex Smith?)), injuries that tend to level the playing field, a good team looking past a bad team, a revenge match, …, and of course parity that make all the teams so thin at many positions) which leaves all the teams on an equal inconsistent leveled grounds. The result: Teams that looked like contenders early in the year are doubtful to even earn a playoffs spot (Denver, Jacksonville) and teams who were considered Oakland-ish bad have hopes of a wild card (San Francisco).

NFC Contenders:

Dallas
Big Win: Indianapolis
Big Loss: Washington
What a big difference between the two games against the Giants. They play New York at home and gets dominated in week7, go for the (scary, often-criticized, debatable-at-best ) QB change and their season looks like a lost hope. Then, after beating the Colts they gain so much confidence that they never mentioned the heart-breaker against Washington and would not get bothered by the loss of their defensive captain Greg Ellis. One thing that is going in favor of this team is how healthy it has stayed (jinx alert). Other than the injury to Ellis and Tyson Thompson early in the year (both IR-ed) their injury report last week was: NONE! Just imagine if thy have drafted Manny Lawson, Mathias Kiwanuka or DeMeco Ryans other than Bobby Carpentar.

Chicago
Big Win: NY Giants, NY Jets
Big Loss: Miami
A QB controversy on week 13 is not a good sign. After they got hammered by Miami at home, the fake aura around this team (and even its defense) started to fade. They bounced back nicely against the Giants and the Jets, but neither game was a dominant performance and as usual an incompetent offense got carried by the defense (10 more takeaways than anyone else in the league) and special teams (Devin Hester for MVP?). Rex Grossman cannot expect to keep winning games with performances like those against the Jets, Pats and Vikings in the past three weeks, and Tommie Harris injury better be not very serious. On the bright side, they have already clinched their division and in the NFC they are a SuperBowl candidate for sure.

New Orleans
Big Win: Atlanta
Big Loss: Pittsburgh
They keep their slot among the big boys proving that they sure belong. The win against the Falcons (The Vick finger game) in week 12 all but secured them the division. The losses against the top two AFC North teams may be understandable but (believe it or not) playoffs contenders should not be losing to the Steelers (a must-beat time at this point of the year) .But now they face a tough stretch (starting against the Cowboys Sunday night) with injuries to Joe Horn and rookie of the year Marques Colston. Their run stopper DT Hollis Thomas is also suspended (steroids) for the last four games. But MVP candidate Drew Brees and a very underrated defense should carry them to a playoffs birth.

Seattle
Big Win: St. Louis, Denver
Big Loss: San Francisco
They had Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris simultaneously starting at QB and RB for a while! But thanks to the pathetic division, they’ve practically clinched it. After they beat the Rams for the second time, the team that generated some buzz over a few empty wins early in the year, the Rams spiraled down the drain. San Francisco threatened the Seahawks for a second after a few wins capped by an upset in SF, but of course the 49ers came down to earth the following week against the Saints. The Seahawks are still not hitting on all cylinders (especially on offense, given that Hasselbeck was not having his best year even before he got hurt). They lost some depth at the DT position after losing Marcus Tubbs and Michael Boulware lost his starting job (poor performance) but if they use the last 3 of four games against scrubs (ARI, SF, TB) to fine tune they could be dangerous in the playoffs.

Wild Card candidates (in the order of their chances):

Philadelphia
Big Win: Carolina
Big Loss: Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville
They go from embarrassing dead-in-the water on Sunday night to a playoffs contender on the next Monday night. That is how the Eagles roller-coaster season is playing out. What a tough stretch they had from the 6^th until the 11^th week!! Now all of a sudden they control their own destiny (with games against the Giants and the Falcons) and with Jeff Garcia (who?) in the perfect system for his skills, they have a chance. Of course they still have the same old problems (inconsistent running game, thin at the LB position), but they are much improved at Wide Receiver, deep at the defensive line and Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins (without the overreaction and the theatrics) anchor a solid secondary.

New York Giants
Big Win: Cowboys (week 7)
Big Loss: Tennessee
Four losses in a row and the team has the outlook of a deteriorating team. It was obvious that its winning streak of 5 games was overrated, and this team never really had the outlook of the best team in the NFC even after that season-peak win against the Cowboys. Just too much drama and too much dysfunction. They were also hit hard by injuries (Luke Petitgout, Amani Toomer, Michael Strahan and the DEs, the LBs) and their rebuilt secondary played much worse than expected (especially Will Demps). The Tennessee game was the back breaker and a terrible way to get ready for the game of the season against the Cowboys (in which they played very well), but it may be hard to recover behind a still-shaky and inconsistent QB.

Carolina
Big Win: None
Big Loss: Philadelphia
Since their win against Baltimore in week 6 this team has only two wins, and they came against Tampa Bay and St. Louis! This is a team that was considered a contender early in the year, but not anymore, and it’s almost inexplicable. It is true that their offensive line is depleted (after loosing the LT Travelle Wharton early, they lost C Justin Hartwig), but they do not appear impressive on either side on the ball. Jake Delhomme usually a good “bus driver” has single handedly cost them at least three games (and now he has a thumb injury). The defensive line has officially crossed into the overrated area and I cannot see where Julius Peppers’ MVP candidacy is coming from. The running game that sued to ba a staple is non-existent since they have not found a back in the mold of Stephen Davis. Just an average team and it shows in its 6-6 record.

Atlanta
Big Win: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Big Loss: Detroit, Cleveland
So they out-slug the Steelers and the Bengals in back to back weeks and Mike Vick is the second coming of Dan Marino then they lose three straight. Note: No playoffs teams should lose to the Lions or the Browns this late in the year, let alone lose to them back to back. The running game that they benefited from early in the year has disappeared (unless you want to consider Vick’s ball-waving scrambles a “running game”) and to quote their owner: “I have three number one receivers and none of them can catch the ball” (Warrants the question: is Ashley Lelie still in the league?) and you may add a QB who cannot throw the ball, but can sure point the finger. They had some injuries (highlighted of course by the annual season-long John Abraham injury), but this team’s defense is hardly a difference maker, and that include overrated (after two years in? is it even possible to become overrated before you even prove you belong in the league) D’Angelo Hall.

Dishonorable mentions: (Sorry you don’t have a chance despite what you think) : Washington, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Francisco.

AFC Contenders:

San Diego
Big Win: Cincinnati, Denver
Big Loss: Kansas City
They are riding a six game winning streak after that a shocking upset loss against KC in week 7. The come-from-behind win against the Bengals proved to them that they can out-score anyone and gave them more confidence in ProBowl-candidate Philip Rivers. Next weeks rematch against Denver should be a big key in clinching the division. LaDanian Tomlinson (who scored 4 TDs against Denver in the first meeting) is a deserving MVP candidate and after managing his touches early in the (Michael Turner relieved him of a few carries and then completely disappeared) he is fresh and is carrying the majority of the offensive load. The defense is giving a relatively high number of points (41 against the Bengals and 20+ points in 6 of their last 7), but Shawne Merriman is back from his steroids suspension, Marlon McCree is a needed-intimidating (dirty?) presence in the secondary and rookie LB Marques Harris has the best celebration move in the league.

Indianapolis
Big Win: Denver, New England
Big Loss: Tennessee
Let's just say that this team does not scare anyone this year (keeping in mind that they did not scare many playoffs team in the past, when they were in better shape). The peak of their season was when they took on Denver and New England on the road in back to back weeks and that made them feel that they do not need to blow people up to show that they are a good team. The loss against a Romo-juvenated Cowboys team was not that bad (they lost it on the final drive), but the loss against Tennessee exposed their usual late-year problems (worn out defense and the lack of defensive playmakers, Manning play-calling with the game on the line, and the lack of overall toughness). However, they still share the best record in the league and cannot be ruled out of a long playoffs run if some breaks go their way.

New England
Big Win: Chicago
Big Loss: NY Jets
One could argue that the Patriots have secured their division after week 8. If they would’ve won that week 11 matchup against the Jets, it would have been officially over. But there is a feeling that this team maybe on cruise control, and some times it is hard to reignite the switch on demand, keeping in mind that this is not the same defense of the past couple of years. The loss of Junior Seau left them with special-teamers Tully Banta-Cain and LB/S Don Davis playing extended minutes. The secondary situation without Rodney Harrison, and with Chad Scott and James Sanders also seeing a lot of playing time, is not very comforting. But this is a Playoffs seasoned team that has not lost on the road all year (only team with such feat, the Colts are the only undefeated at home) with an excellent QB, a running game, and an outstanding coach (although he may have seemed to over think himself in some situations this year).

Baltimore
Big Win: Cincinnati (week 9)
Big Loss: Cincinnati (week13)
Their offense showed its true colors once again during the latest Bengals game. They were completely shut out (until a garbage time TD) without turning the ball over and without even surrendering a sack! Steve McNair had a good stretch of games against average opponents and Jamal Lewis finally showed some life, but they only scored more than 30 points once all year (week 8 against the Saints). This will make the defense job very hard (as usual) (Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott are ProBowl candidates) and their field position will be hurt by the loss of KR B.J Sams for the year. They have one more game against a winning team (KC) and with 9 wins thus far they should be a shoe-in to the playoffs.

Wild Card candidates (in no particular order):

Cincinnati
Big Win: Baltimore (week 13)
Big Loss: Chargers
Their early 4-2 record quickly crashed after 3 straight losses to the Falcons, Ravens and Chargers. After week 10 and with a 4-5 record their playoffs hopes looked really dim. But give them and coach Marvin Lewis big credit for bouncing back with 3 straight wins (including the Saints on the road, and the must win against the Ravens). The defense has stepped up tremendously allowing (zero, 7, 14) points in the last three games (the three best outings all year). The LBs are doing a much better job against the run (credit the return of Brian Simmons, the play of Caleb Miller and improving rookie Ahmad Brooks). On offense, the retooled offensive line (after the losses of LT Levi Jones and C Rich Braham) are giving Carson Palmer more time, which is essential for their offensive scheme and for the QBs comfort. Even WR Chad Johnson is playing much better since he started being a little more quiet.

New York Jets
Big Win: New England
Big Loss: Cleveland
The most improved team in the second half of the season, and a proof that if you come prepared to win the games you are supposed to win, you can end up in the playoffs. Other than the motivated win against New England (a game that you can argue the Patriots did not care for that much, playing their sloppiest football in years) this Jets team does not have any big upsets or huge wins. They just took care of business against “weaker” teams, credit to their rookie coach Eric Mangini . Chad Pennington is a smart QB and WR Jerricho Cotchery is making enough plays that he should be considered for the Pro Bowl. They could have dealt with the RBs situation a little better. All these backs (Leaon Washington, Cedrick Houston, Kevan Barlow (when he was part of the rotation)) are decent players and the running back by committee approach works best when the players have defined roles. On defense they are solid (11^th in total points allowed), and feature some stars playing very well (LB Jonathan Vilma, DE Shaum Ellis and Bryan Thomas) S Kerry Rhodes but without too many difference-making plays.

Denver
Big Win: None
Big Loss: San Diego, Kansas City
Here is a team that may have reached its peak around the fourth week of the season. In the last 7 weeks their wins came against Oakland and Pittsburgh. They are riding a three-game losing streak and just went through a QB change, starting a rookie!! The running game that used to be there go-to-weapon has considerably diminished (regardless of whether its Mike Bell or Tatum Bell), and maybe the loss of the LT (Matt Lepsis) will end up hurting any team even no matter what kind of blocking technique is using. The defense that was lights-out early surrendered 34 to the Colts (the “lets pick on Darrent Williams” game) and 35 to San Diego. Injuries and lack of depth are starting to show their effect on the defense (the only rotation player at the DL is Elvis Dumervil and the overworked trio at LB does not have any reliable subs (maybe Nate Webster)). If not for games against Arizona and San Francisco it would be certain that they would miss the playoffs.

Jacksonville
Big Win: NY Giants, Miami
Big Loss: Houston (TWICE)
The ultimate two-faced team of the year. A team that can go on the road against the Eagles (week 8, when the Eagles still had the most prolific offense in the league) and hold them to 6 points, drop a beat down on an average team like Tennessee 37-7, in between two losses to the Texans!! If not for the tough closing schedule (Pats and Colts at home, Chiefs and Titans on the road), they would be a very strong candidate for the playoffs. Despite injuries their defense continues to hold up, and they have one of the best running games in the league (Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor). The switch to David Garrard does not look like a bad move, and all this team lacks is some confidence and something remotely resembling a fan-base.

Kansas City
Big Win: San Diego, Denver
Big Loss: Cleveland
The Chiefs deserve big credit for keeping it together despite the early injury to Trent Green, the new comers to the offensive line, the no-name receivers, the slow start of TE Tony Gonzalez and everything else. They have wins against their division rivals and the Seahawks (granted a depleted Seattle team but still), and a lot of the credit has to go to Larry Johnson, also an MVP candidate (30+ touches in 5 of the last six games (41 against the Chargers). He has 310 rushing attempts followed by Chester Taylor and williw Parker 265!). The defense is also playing much better this year and maybe Herman Edwards deserves some credit for that. The problem is losses like the one against Miami and Cleveland last week that could be an indicator that this team may not be that good after all. If the Chiefs are to get into the playoffs they have to prove they belong with at least two wins in their final tough four (Baltimore, @SD, @Oakland, Jacksonville).

Dishonorable mentions: (That was a little too late. Maybe next year, or maybe if you were in the NFC): Miami, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tennessee.